Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold price rebounds on downbeat NFP data, eyes on Fedspeak
Gold price (XAU/USD) snaps the two-day losing streak during the European session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected US employment reports have boosted the odds of a September rate cut from the US Fed.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
Gold price trades on a stronger note on the day. The bullish outlook of the precious metal remains intact, as XAU/USD is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart.
In the near term, the gold price has remained capped within a descending trend channel since mid-April, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50 midline, indicating indecisiveness among market players.
The first upside barrier for the yellow metal will emerge near the 100-EMA at $2,318. A decisive break above the mentioned level would resume the positive outlook in the short term. The next hurdle is seen at the $2,350–$2,355 region, portraying the confluence of a high of April 26 and the upper boundary of a descending trend channel. A bullish breakout above this level will expose the $2,400 mark en route to an all-time high near $2,432.
On the downside, any follow-through selling below the $2,300 psychological mark will see a drop to a low of May 3 and the lower limit of a descending trend channel at $2,275. Further south, the next contention level is located near a low of April 1 at $2,228, followed by the $2,200 round mark.
Fundamental Overview
Gold price (XAU/USD) snaps the two-day losing streak during the European session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected US employment reports have boosted the odds of a September rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, has dragged the US Dollar (USD) lower and lifted the USD-denominated gold. It’s worth noting that a lower interest rate can decrease the opportunity cost of investing in gold, leading to higher demand and price.
On the other hand, the easing fear of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and the risk-on environment might undermine demand for safe-haven assets and cap the yellow metal’s upside. Gold traders will keep an eye on Fedspeak this week. Fed’s Thomas Barkin and John Williams are set to speak on Monday. The dovish message from Fed officials might further boost the XAU/USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD bears take action on mixed signals from US economy Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price fell more than 2% for the second consecutive week, erased a small portion of its losses but finally came under renewed bearish pressure. The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum as the market focus shifts to Fedspeak.
Metals Big Picture
METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0750 to start the week
EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.0750 in the European session on Monday. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following Friday's disappointing labor market data and helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.2550
Following Friday's volatile action, GBP/USD edges highs and trades in the green above 1.2550. Soft April jobs report from the US and the modest improvement seen in risk mood make it difficult for the US Dollar to gather strength.
USD/JPY inches higher to 153.70 amid a firmer US Dollar
USD/JPY could receive pressure due to revived expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts in 2024. US Nonfarm Payrolls reported fresh 175K jobs were added in April, lower than the estimated 243K. Japanese markets are closed on Monday due to a national holiday, with the possibility of intervention by authorities still present.
Gold price rebounds on downbeat NFP data, eyes on Fedspeak
Gold price (XAU/USD) snaps the two-day losing streak during the European session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected US employment reports have boosted the odds of a September rate cut from the US Fed.
WTI halts losing streak after Saudi Arabia raises Oil prices for June
West Texas Intermediate crude Oil price snaps its losing streak, trading around $78.20 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Oil prices increased after Saudi Arabia raised June crude prices for most regions.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
